Kate Usher - Trend Bible

I recently interviewed Kate Usher, a trend forecaster, as part of my research for a report on the Trend Forecasting Industry. Below is the full transcript of the interview. If you wish to see the article version, you can find it under the Case Studies section of my blog or by clicking here.

Interview

C: So, you've been at Trend Bible now for about 14 years almost.

K: I've actually been at trend bible full time for about four years. As a student, I went to a talk by our managing director and then kind of persuaded her to give me an internship, so I worked over the summer as an intern and then I kept my foot in the door after graduating by remaining close with the company and did a bit of freelancing for them over the years. I've shared an office space with them for a while when I had my own business. I just kind of freelanced on and off over the years with the company until I eventually just made the plunge and worked for them full time, which I love and I'm so glad I did

C: And you work mainly in the home and interior section

K: Yes, although I do cover baby and kids and gifts and greetings as well, so it's quite broad what I do

C: So you have been with Trend Bible since the beginning, really? Was it about three years after it was founded that you joined

K: Yeah

C: How do you think the company and the industry have developed since then?

K: Well, there's more trend agencies than ever before now, it's a massively growing industry. The agencies who published physically trend books have mainly begun to offer online services like we have so it's really shifting into a more digital online model, particularly that's been accelerated by the pandemic. Sustainability and the forecast for slowing consumption have had a really big impact on trend forecasting being associated with the turn of products that we seemingly kind of produce then go into landfill is something that has become deeply unattractive to brands, so we are finding that a lot of our customers have more pressure on them to inspire and influence major corporate to do something more meaningful and less harmful

C: I know I'm part of a community group with Geraldine Wharry and we have been discussing because of this longevity we are going to see a reduction in micro trends and it is going to be about macro and having stuff that's going to be lasting more than half a season

K: I think consumers are definitely starting to drive this desire for less fast fashion fast consumption even in homeware products. We are still a way off from everyone kind of shifting towards that consumer behaviour you've got people who care deeply about the environment and that affects their purchasing behaviour but then you've got people who so of care but really their main concerns are price point and convince but things are moving in the right direction I think in that sense

C: I think it doesn't help though when you have brands like pretty little thing doing 100% discounts over black Friday it just establishes more of that just quick turn over isn't it

K: Exactly

C: What areas have been your main growth at trend bible

K: For us, our biggest growth area has been the online subscription services, particularly in the past year because we have just got that up and running in the last couple of years and we've seen so many clients shift over to that rather than buying a book every season they want more regular updates and they want them immediately and digital provides that kind of immediacy so that's been a huge growth area for us but also, we're shifting more into the macro trends space. We offer design trends and macro trends but we are doing a lot more on the macro side of things now. We launched our membership service online during the pandemic and we've also adapted our business model away from physical trend books to reduce waste paper usage and shipping it's just a really good way for us to be more responsive and agile to change and keep our clients ahead of changes coming we can update things daily on the website platform

C: do you think that has helped you? Having that much closer relationship with your clients because you can communicate 24/7 almost and give them updates straight away. has that helped build better relationships between you all

K: Yes, I would say so definitely and we are planning to build out our team whilst we've always worked with trend scouts all over the world we're hiring more full-time staff outside of our head office now because the pandemic has forced us to shift the way that we work and we've found that we didn't actually need to be physically in one place we can work more closely with colleagues all over the world so that's opened up our pool of recruitment as well which has helped us get more quality forecasters on the team from all over the place which has been really beneficial for us

C: I know you say we've had this pandemic and that has led to an increase within trend forecasting what other sort of influences have added to this increase for brands to want to trend forecast and look at this industry

K: I think companies have sort of been expected to produce goods that are harm-free and it will become the small print, not the headlines so there's more pressure on them and there's more of a baseline expectation for brands that are  sustainable and do no harm in that sense it's difficult for them to walk the line between consumption and frugality so as a result, the trend forecasting industry needs to adapt and have meaning beyond just tangible products so yeah I guess the need for sustainability has massively led brands to seek our help and advice and also just to remain relevant in a world where there are so many brands and so much competition its key for our customers to be ahead of the curve and to know what's coming and to be able to forecast that in plenty of time and react to it to have time to react to change I think is the key thing

C: So, looking more about your career in trend forecasting what drew you initially to this area I know you did a textiles degree is that correct

K: Yeah, and I did have my own business as a textile designer for about 6 or 7 years and I loved it. It was just really had to break through and make a success of that and earn a decent wage so I always did a little trend forecasting on the side with trend bible and other companies and I just loved the creativity that every day I get to be creative in this job and I get a variety especially as being a consultant because I work with many different brands and retailers in across all different industry's so one day I might be working with a kitchen manufacture next day it might be a manufacturer of babies bottles and products or it might be a greetings card manufacturer and I just love the variety because I'm someone who quite enjoys change. I've always been a keen researcher I just love researching and keeping my finger on the pulse of what's happening in the design world so this job allows me to do that and be paid for it which is awesome and that's mainly what drew me to it, the fact I can go to trade shows and travel a lot or we use to we don't travel so much now and just really keep on learning and seeing what's happening in the world and passing that knowledge on I think is what appealed to me

C: Yeah, how are you finding adapting now to trade shows which are online are you finding them as useful

K: As a business, we've found that the key big shows we need someone there in person so we pay a scout who's already in the country or we send someone. It is trickier with travel insurance for them and stuff and allowing staff to travel at the moment it is always better to be there in person I think with design shows anyway a lot of them have great talks and webinars that you can attend online anyway so you don't miss out on that content but we are finding that an in-person presence is pretty much needed at a time

C: I imagine that with home as well there's a lot of tangible products and it's knowing how they function, how it can be developed for clients it's always good to have that element where you can touch it work with it yourself

K: Exactly I mean we've done a few where we've covered them online, we did design week last year they had a pretty good online platform where you could walk around this virtual portal some have done better jobs than others but yeah, we always prefer to just go and be there and see it and feel it and visit the press office and be there in person

C: So, what was a pivotal point in your career development that cemented that this is what I want to do this is how I'm going to be doing it

K: I guess just being given that opportunity by trend bible because there aren't many trend forecasting agencies around and I think had Jo not come to our university and gave us a talk about it I wouldn't have really known that that industry existed I mean I know it existed because we had trend books and stuff in the library but I wouldn't have known it was so accessible to me as a person. When I graduated I already had two children so it wasn't like I could just go off and work in New York or London or be on a placement elsewhere I did do a couple of weeks in London but I couldn't do anything long term so having opportunities on my doorstep I think provided me with that pivotal kind of point and thinking actually I could do this as a career I did do a few things with other agencies in London and things like that I think I've always really loved it and enjoyed it so yeah just being given the chance by trend bible was really amazing

C: what do you think are essential skills or traits for someone starting in the industry

K: I think you have to be naturally curious if you're not one of these people who constantly wonders about why things are a certain way oh I wonder why that's like that or I wonder where that came from then you probably don't have what it takes to be a trend forecaster we're constantly asking questions and learning how to ask the right questions that lead to figuring out the answers for clients so yeah someone who loves change loves new things and exploring and seeing a bit of the world and always trying to find out about new designers or the latest design gallery opening and that kind of thing just someone who is constantly curious I think is the key

C: is there any threats that are happening right now that if someone was entering the field it would make it more challenging

K: I guess the fact there's so many businesses doing what we do now and it's making your voice heard and getting the marketing right to get into the industry and be seen and heard above the others it's just to make sure that you are servicing the needs of your client because there are different types of trend forecasting you've got fashion and the fashion forecasting industry has always been really big but what we're finding now is that as an interior focused company were finding that all those fashion forecasters like WGSN are now moving more heavily into home because of the pandemic and because of the home industry booming right now home and outdoor they all want a piece of the pie so we're finding that our competitors are starting to close in on us and try and get a piece of that cake that we've been working on and nurturing for years but if you were to go into interiors forecasting it is a competitive business at the moment

C: I know looking through WGSN website they recently started their beauty and their technology and digital elements as well

K: they've always been a huge business I think where we can offer something a little bit different is that we are a more tailored service in terms of our consultancy we are very bespoke and very kind of focused on the needs of the customer rather than giving them all of the information we possible give them we give them just the information that they need to know and that's why our clients quite often chose us over WGSN it's getting that bespoke service

C: what does the future of trend bible look like then, I know you've said about growing the teams and that but anything else

K: I think we are going to get increasingly asked to forecast future lifestyle trends for brands and retailers because they are going to be under this pressure to develop harm-free products we launched our membership service as I said and shifted away from the physical trend books and planned to expand our team so I think in the next 3 to 5 years we'll grow our team a lot more we'll still have a head office based in Newcastle but we are planning to have another office elsewhere as well hiring more full-time staff as I said outside of the office and that's a consequence of flexible home working policies that's been brought into the business and it's more attractive to the workforce so it brings in fresh talent so yeah just growth hopefully in an upwards trajectory

C: Talking about the working from home element do you think that's another reason why lifestyle is increasing so much as well because this working from home element, it was very minimal before the pandemic and now it seems to be that not just freelancers are doing that but now bankers, my partner is a videographer, he works from home now rather than going to an office

K: Yeah there are tons of people doing it now and I think that that's having a real effect on our lifestyles and how you know if we aren't commuting anymore what are we then able to do we are probably going to see a huge increase in home offices but also garden offices and it will affect our neighbourhoods because if you're not commuting to a city you are spending more time and more money in your immediate neighbourhood and suburbs in this place that you live around your home so it will affect the economy in that sense and the local economy rather than just the urban economy so it's like a decentralisation of the workforce is causing lots of different changes. Kingfisher who owns B&Q last year reported a 17.5% in sales during that pandemic period which is huge

C: think I was defiantly one of them

K: yeah, and you've got all of the fashion brands like H&M and Asos who are opening up these lifestyle collections doing bedding and home products so everyone is wanting a piece of that pie now which means the interior and lifestyle industry is really booming at the moment

C: I know you said you had about 15 minutes are you alright just answering a couple more questions

K: yeah yeah

C: I just didn't want to keep you if you had somewhere else to be so what other problems and issues do you see arising in the future for the trend forecasting industry as we go more digital and these technological advances

K: obviously the digital or the metaverse will be huge for our client's businesses and we've been working in the future of the metaverse for a while now thinking about the exciting developments that are about to happen I think in terms of challenges just making sure that our clients are kind of geared up for that digital world for example if their bricks and mortar retail only they are going to fall out of favour and need to make sure that they have the systems in place to adapt to this new retail landscape and sure that they are offering phygital experiences so a mixture of physical and digital retail experience and just making sure they are in the right place to speak to their customers but in terms of trend forecasting it's just the things that I mentioned just making sure that we offer digital products and services and that we're not relying on those physical trend book so much anymore

C: I know the other project I'm doing for this is all about fashion within the metaverse and I've just found the topic so interesting at the minute I'm not someone who is necessarily very design brand-driven or anything but seeing the amount of money people will spend on NFTs that are designer based I just find fascinating that people are willing to spend that money and how brands are entering it

K: I know the fact that you'd buy I don't know a designer bag or something that you're never going to actually hold in real life

C: yeah, it's just to go on an avatar

K: it is crazy but seems to be the way things are going

C: I know one thing I was looking at was people saying how you're going to have interior designer or metaverse stylists where they come in and will design your avatars landscape within your avatar home, and it just sounds when you say it like that so bizarre

K: it does doesn't it

C: it's literally what's going to be happening

K: I mean the thing is with home interiors, especially people are always going to have physical homes so there always going to be that need for tangible products and what we've started to think about is how the metaverse and all this kind of ability for AI will impact on the physical home so there are products like I can't think of the brand name right now but we've done a blog post on it recently I think products like projections on to your walls or home that creates a landscape or completely different environment and changes the whole look of your living room at the click of a button so things like that which will make that phyital experience in the home it will bring it to life as so it's a gaming universe that's what we will probably see begin to happen in the future which is quite scary

C: last thing then I've seen is that you've recently started a Linked In event Voices for Change, I was just wondering what was your reason behind that and how it's going what sort of response have you had so far

K: well the first one is this week so we've had a good sign up so far  so I think we've had 150 people sign up so far but we are going to give it another push before it actually happens this week and that's basically just to educate our audience and our customers on macro trends and why they're important and also kind of a little sales push towards our macro reports which are available to purchase on the platform so it's just to build awareness of the products that we do and also get our founder Jo on there talking to the audience just to get her a little more involved in the marketing and hopefully it will be successful we will see